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Blog

Writing on AI, data science, actuarial science, and the ideas that keep me up at night.

Jan 17, 2026
Model Lock-in is the New Vendor Lock-in

AI labs are surrounding their models with proprietary tooling — subscriptions, IDEs, agents. The bet is that you'll never leave. Here's why staying model-agnostic is the safer play.

aitechnologyphilosophy
Jan 15, 2026
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Code

I threw a raw astrophotography FITS file at VerbaGPT and asked it to process the Orion nebula. It applied color stretching and star-masking in 15 minutes. Code + LLM is unreasonably effective.

aiverbagptproductivity
Jan 14, 2026
We're Drowning in Tools

AI makes it trivial to build software for narrow problems. The result is a tool zoo that demands more attention than it saves. The solution is one-to-many problem solving.

aiproductivityproductphilosophy
Jan 13, 2026
End-to-End Autonomous Data Analysis

A walkthrough of what fully autonomous data analysis looks like when it works — and where it still falls short.

aidata-scienceagents
Jan 7, 2026
What AI Future Do We Want?

We spend a lot of time asking what AI can do. Not enough time asking what we actually want it to do.

aiphilosophytechnology
Dec 26, 2025
Agent Skills in LLMs: A Weather Analysis Case Study

Testing LLM agent skills on a weather analysis problem — what worked, what surprised me, and what still needs work.

aiagentsdata-science
Dec 21, 2025
On Accuracy When LLMs Analyze Real-World Data

LLMs are surprisingly good at analysis — until the data is messy. Here's what I found testing against real-world healthcare data.

aillmaccuracyhealthcare
Sep 2025
The Hidden Cognitive Costs of AI-Driven Productivity

Offloading thinking to AI can make you faster. It can also make you shallower. The tradeoff is worth understanding.

aiproductivitycognition
Sep 2025
Brute Force AI

There's a school of thought that scaling compute is all you need. Here's what that gets right — and wrong.

aimachine-learning
Sep 2025
The True Cost of Investment Fees — Interactive Calculator

Small percentage fees have enormous compounding effects over decades. An interactive calculator to see exactly how much.

investingpersonal-financecompound-interest
Jan 2025
Embracing Uncertainty in Actuarial Practice

Actuaries are trained to quantify uncertainty. But there's a difference between modeling it and truly embracing it.

actuarialhealthcarerisk-adjustment
Sep 2024
Simplifying Risk Adjustment

Complex risk adjustment models don't outperform simple ones at the plan level. The data is clear — and the implications are significant.

actuarialhealthcarerisk-adjustment
2022
Benford's Spell and Healthcare Fraud

Benford's Law says the first digit of real-world numbers follows a predictable distribution. Healthcare billing data does not always agree.

healthcarefraud-detectiondata-science
Nov 2020
Automated Machine Learning

AutoML promises to democratize data science. A look at where it actually delivers and where you still need a human in the loop.

data-sciencemachine-learning
Feb 2020
AI and Healthcare

The promise of AI in healthcare is enormous. The reality — in 2020 — is more complicated. A look at where we actually were.

aihealthcare
Jul 2019
New Variables for Risk Adjustment

Social determinants of health, genomics, and behavioral data — what they could mean for risk adjustment models.

actuarialrisk-adjustmenthealthcare
Mar 2019
Risk Adjustment: A Blend of Future and Past

Risk adjustment models look backward to predict forward. Here's what that tension means for payment accuracy.

actuarialrisk-adjustmenthealthcare
Jan 2019
RA Series: ACA Risk Adjustment Data Validation

A walkthrough of ACA RADV — what it is, how audits work, and what health plans need to know.

actuarialhealthcare
Jan 2019
The Fall and Rise of AI

AI has gone through multiple winters and springs. What's different this time — and what's the same.

aiphilosophy
Jul 2018
Boosting Risk

The ACA risk adjustment program hit pause in 2018. Here's what happened and what it meant for the individual market.

actuarialrisk-adjustmenthealthcare